Never before has a date in history been so
significant to so many cultures, so many religions, scientists, and
governments. "2012" is an epic adventure about a global cataclysm
that brings an end to the world and tells of the heroic struggle of the
survivors. 2012 Movie
At the beginning of the year 2011, many Nigerians had greater than
life expectations. At the time, many spiritual leaders and prophets including
traditionalists, seers, parapsychologists all had the same message for Nigerians, “that Nigeria will be better for it at the
April 2011 Elections and that Nigeria will be better for it at the end of the
year”. This prophetic revelations and predictions formed the basis of
decision on the part of most Nigerians to come out enmasse to participate in
the last general elections. It was in the same year that Nigerians saw a
presidential candidate trying to connect with the people by speaking of the
link he shared with them.
Presidential candidate Goodluck Ebele Jonathan told us all that
like most Nigerians alive today that he didn’t go to school wearing shoes, and
that if he can do it then every Nigerian child born and unborn can do it. Interestingly
too, it was in 2011 that many more Nigerians were lost to civil strives
occasioned by the state of insecurity and federal government ineptitude in the
country. At the end of the elections, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan emerged
‘victorious’ in an election that was heavily condemned by the opposition as
fraught with many examples of election malpractices. 2011 was also a year that saw
an executive president begging a candidate for ministerial position to come
work for him. The same year, also saw for the first time the emergence and
appointment of a supervisory minister in Nigeria. Year 2011, also the
advancement of right-wing and anti-people arguments to convince Nigerians on
the need for the removal of the ‘subsidy’ on petroleum and attempt by President
Jonathan and his cabinet to consult widely employing IBB style (a populist
debate to rationalise government action).
But the interesting thing about the so-called state sponsored consultations
and debates was that before the consultations and debates had ended, President
Jonathan on the January 1, 2012, through Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) announced the removal of ‘subsidy’ on fuel in Nigeria, as a kind
of New Year (2012) gift. As if 2012 will be different, prophets, parapsychologists
and their likes had barely concluded their predictions before Nigerians are
been asked to pay more than 215% in pump price for fuel (that is premium motor
spirit PMS). Reports in the media pointed toward the real effects (backlash)
are already being felt by the people with multiplier dimensions. To say prices
have gone up is an understatement. However the crux of the matter here is no
more the hike and its multiplier effects, nor Dr.
Christopher Kolade’s board of the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment
Programme, neither is it Justice Alfa Belgore’s committee which is expected to
dialogue with organized labour. It is that federal government of Nigeria owes
Nigerians trillions of Naira which must be paid back, so that the people can
pay for the consequences of the ‘subsidy’ withdrawal. Paying this amount is not
a favour that palliatives from the two groups appointed by President Jonathan
can negotiate away.
Fact of figures is that the Nigeria federal
government is presently (at the time of writing this piece) owing Nigerians a
total of over Sixty four trillion, two
hundred and sixty-six billion and sixty million naira (N64, 266,060, 000, 000 trillion) in
excess amount paid for fuel over the last 12 years of the present civilian
dispensation. The figure represents the combined contributions by Nigerians to
the now defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) and in Road Tax or Levy collected
over the last 9 years (following the dismantling of toll gates and stoppage
toll fares collection across the country. For the avoidance of doubt, when in
1994, the late General Sani Abacha military regime increased pump price of fuel
to N17 per litre, and at the same time placed a N2 per litre surcharge on every
litre of petrol bought by Nigerians. The regime explained to Nigerians that the
money accruing from the surcharge will be administered by PTF to supplement
government spending on infrastructural provisions across the country. PTF was
disbanded by President Olusegun Obasanjo on assumption of office and directed appropriate
ministries to take over the function of PTF.
However, the disbandment of PTF did not lead to
cancellation of the Abacha N2 fuel surcharge by President Obasanjo. Rather than
reduce the pump price, fuel price went up by almost 350% to N65 per litre. In
the same vein, following the dismantling of the toll gates and subsequent
cancellation of toll collection on Nigeria roads in 2003, President Obasanjo
also introduced road tax of about N2.50. For ease of collection, the amount was
also built into the N65 pump price for petrol. This also mean that for every
litre of fuel purchased at pump, Nigerians has been and this collection has
been ongoing for the last nine (9) years. As a follow-up, to the ‘subsidy’
withdrawal, President Jonathan is already mulling the return of tolls on
Nigeria’s roads through cronies masquerading as private investors despite the
huge amount of money contributed by Nigerians to maintain the same roads
through road tax or levy.
According to a pilot study of used oils in Nigeria conducted
by Prof. O. A. Bamiro (National Expert) and Prof. O. Osibanjo (Project
Coordinator) for the Basel Convention Secretariat, there are a total of six
million (6M) registered vehicles in Nigeria as of 2004. Of the 6million
vehicles, sixty percent (60%) are cars or 4,200,000 cars (4.2m), while the
remaining 1, 800,000 (1.8m) are trucks and buses. By 2007, the number has risen
to seven million (7m) according to the Federal Roads Safety Commission (FRSC). This
data from the FRSC therefore suggests that a million vehicles are registered in
Nigeria every three year. Therefore, relying on the 2007 data from FRSC, the
total number of registered vehicles in Nigeria at the end of year 2011 is 8m
with a total of approximately 6m being numbers for cars while trucks and buses
translate to approximately 2m.
Going by simple economics and mathematics, eight million (8m)
vehicles will translate to about 50 vehicles for every 1000 Nigerians.
Therefore, if we go by statistics provided by Nigeria National Petroleum Company
(NNPC) that a total of 445, 000 litres of fuel is consumed daily in Nigeria. Factoring
NNPC data on daily consumption, it therefore suggest that a total of 2670
million litres is consumed weekly based on twice a week fuel refill which
translates to 1, 38,840,000,000 trillion litres for 52 weeks. In 12 years,
Nigerians would have consumed a total of 16, 66, 080, 000,000 litres and by
implication paid a total of N33, 32, 160, 000,000 trillion in excess for fuel
going by the N2 fuel surcharge of 1996 which was cancelled in 1999.
As a corollary, based on the annual fuel consumption of 1,
38,840,000,000 trillion litres, the total consumption for 9 years since the
stoppage of toll collection on Nigerian roads and introduction of N2 road tax
and levy is 12, 49, 560, 000, 000 trillion litres and by implication paid a
total of N24, 99, 120, 000,000 in excess payment for pump price of petroleum. This
combination of the Abacha fuel surcharge and OBJ road tax accumulate to a total
of N64, 266,060, 000, 000 trillion and
the amount represent the amount being owed Nigerians. Having painstakingly established the amount
being owed Nigerians by successive government since 1999, it is rather
surprising that none on the government side has bothered to mention these
invaluable contributions of Nigerians towards the boosting the country’s
economy and by implication development and maintenance of the same
infrastructures as the purported President Jonathan’s proceeds from ‘subsidy’
removal would be directed towards.
From the foregoing, it is evidently established that ordinary
Nigerians have been subsidising pump price of fuel used since 1994 and by
implication the provision and maintenance of infrastructures such roads,
hospitals, schools (including funding universities, polytechnics and
monotechnics), among others. Had this amount been judiciously directed towards
the original purposes they were went to serve including the refurbishment and
maintenance of the four (4) existing refineries like the PTF did under retired
General Buhari as the chairman of PTF, there would not have been a complete
breakdown and degeneration of these infrastructures. This goes to buttress the
arguments that the real problem as attested to by President Jonathan, Dr.
Okonjo-Iweala and CBN Governor Lamido Sanusi is corruption and not the pump
price of fuel.
From the analysis presented in this write up, it is very clear the
government and its spin doctors and fuzzy economists can come forward to ask,
how do we share the money? This is very simple; there is no need to physically
return this money to every Nigerian. This amount can count towards paying for the
so-called subsidy for the next 21years 8months, factoring the phantom amount
being claimed by President Jonathan at three trillion (N3trillion) as the ‘true cost of the subsidy’ per year. This
appears an easy way out for a federal government so desperate to play to
IMF/World Bank dictates and to present itself as fellow traveller that shares
the pains of Nigerians. However, should the federal government and its
supporters in state houses prefer not to consider this option, I dare to say, this
new year 2012 may become a significant one that will determine whether the
current civilian democratic experiment will last or not.
