Much Ado about Leaked audio between LP Presidential candidate Peter Obi and Bishop Oyedepo

 I am appalled at the level of pretenses in our dear motherland, Nigeria. Since yesterday, most social media commentaries have been on the leaked telephone conversation between LP Presidential candidate Peter Obi and Bishop Oyedepo. In a gotcha manner, the Leaked telephone conversation is now the measure of our political purity or madness. 

The appalling part of the narrative is the way and manner people are behaving and sounding holier than thou as if this is the first time we are witnessing such. Ethno-religious colouration have always been part of politics in Nigeria even before our independence in 1960 from the British colonialists. Ethno-religious card was adequately deployed as political tactic pre-indepedence in the 50s and it continued through the first Republic till now. 

Which among all the major parties or candidates and their supporters is not guilty of playing the Ethno-religious card. We had evidences of similar activities throughout the campaigns and election period. Politics is an interest game and it's based on numbers. All politicians, and their parties do all they can curry favours of different kinds of people and to woo voters to their platforms. 

Examples are rife across the world of politicians patronizing religious houses or leaders to seek endorsement. Vivid example can be gleaned from the united States political landscape where candidates even promise to do the biddings of the religious leaders. For instance, the influence of the Christian Evangelical church is larger than life itself there. 

Rather than be pretending or posting a holier than thou position and wasting quality time discussing the telephone conversation. We should now be appraising other more iissues related to the 2023 Elections and the build up to the elections. 

Our inability to look past the leaked audio will certainly obfuscate our ability to critically appraise all the dynamics at play before and during the last elections in a way that we learn a few lessons for the future sakes. 

CONSCIENCE, NURTURED BY TRUTH: THIEVES AS HEROES

CONSCIENCE, NURTURED BY TRUTH: THIEVES AS HEROES: Recently, around the middle of December 2013, in the south-central city of Jaén, Spain, a thief helped the Spanish police to arrest a ...

THIEVES AS HEROES

+Lateef Olayiwola +Ganiyu Olatunde +Sulaimon Arigbabu +Temitope Sanni +Segun Sanni +Jimi Popoola +Dayo Akinmola +Fatogun, Samson Akinwumi +Jules Fakrogha +Kayode Samuel +Sewanu ADEBODUN-TOPLONU +Olufunmilayo Olumade 

Recently, around the middle of December 2013, in the south-central city of Jaén, Spain, a thief helped the Spanish police to arrest a suspected paedophile football coach after the thief tipped them off  as a result of incriminating videotapes stolen from the man's home. The videotapes, three in number contained graphic recordings of sexual abuse against children aged about 10. The thief after watching the video wrote the police an anonymous letter giving them the address of the suspect, alongside the videotapes in a brown envelope and placed it beneath a parked brown car. In the letter to the police, the thief wrote "I have had the misfortune to have these tapes fall into my hands and feel obliged to submit them so you can do your work and put this ... in jail for life.” The Spanish police have since identified the alleged suspect from the content of the videotapes and arrested him after a search of his home and the indoor football club where he worked.

Interestingly, the suspect had earlier reported a burglary at his home nine days earlier, listing several appliances as stolen, but making no mention of his missing video camera and tapes. For reference sake, a paedophile is a person who is 16 years of age or older, who is primarily or exclusively sexually attracted to children who have not begun puberty (girls 10 years old or less, and boys 11 year old or less, on average). Meanwhile, the police had asked the thief to report at the police station to answer the case of burglary despite cooperating with the police in the arrest of the paedophile coach.

About the same in Nigeria, the two people that have taken part in the plundering of Nigeria topped the headlines in the national media, blogosphere and social media world. These two people are former President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military head of State and retired army general, and Chibuke Rotimi Amaechi, a former speaker and present governor of Rivers State. The former was in the news for his 18-page treatise to the President Jonathan on the present situation of things between both of them, their party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Nigeria. The thrust of Chief  Obasanjo letter entitled “Before It is too late” on one part, it was meant to forewarn  President Jonathan about the worsening state of the nation in relation to governance breakdown, massive looting and corruption, insecurity, exponential increase in unemployment among others. On the part of the later, Gov. Amaechi at a public function was quoted saying " We steal because you never stoned us".  Gov. Amaechi words were more of an in-your-face-scorn of the Nigerians in general. On the other side of the two communications which have gone viral on the social media was a salient call for the people to stand up and revolt against the rot plaguing the country.

The actions of both men can be likened to that of the Spanish thief mentioned earlier above. Both have through their communications have reported other criminal actions of others out of supposed concern for the Nigeria. Both Obasanjo and Amaechi's actions are similar to the Spanish thief’s note to the police that helped arrested the paedophile coach. Rather than been arrested like the Spanish thief for their roles in the destruction and entrenchment of corruption and other plagues bedevilling the country, unfortunately both men have somehow been successful at stealing Nigerians’ focus from the real issues. Even though   Gov. Amaechi and other thieves who recently decamped from the PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC) may escape arrest and the wrath of law momentarily, his message remains poignantly relevant because of its importance as a future guide to what should be direction of the people’s action. .

“Even the musicians, you're singing about us, the leaders? If you see a thief and you allow him to be stealing, what do you do? You have stoned nobody that's why we are stealing. Who have you stoned? We came out and you started dancing, the oil subsidy, we told you they stole N2.3trillion, what did you do? Instead you're protesting. The oil subsidy that is not reaching the poor, few individuals are going away with the money, you have done nothing … It's good to steal if you can't fight back. You have heard about $50 billion, nobody is talking… In some countries people will be on the street, until they return that money. $50billion is N8trillion, it will change Nigeria. Me I want to steal only $1billion, let them bring it"

The context of word captured in full here is very strong yet very damning. A friend of mine has compared his vituperation to that of rapists who always blame their victims for committing the crime of rape; it's always about the way she dressed, the way she looked at me, the way she talked to me, she has been taking my money etc., but no excuse absolves a rapist of the crime he has committed.

Since Gov. Amaechi decided to reference other climes, it just as important for me to bring to his awareness what occurs in those climes to those who corruptly enriched themselves or their families from state coffers. For the avoidance of doubt, Gov. Amaechi, just recently in nearby Ghana, President John Dramani Mahama relieved the deputy minister of communication, Victoria Hammah, of her position a day after she was heard in a leaked tape to radio stations saying she would not quit politics until she has made at least $1 million. In the United State, the governor of President Obama’s home state of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich is presently in jail for attempting to sell the vacant senate seat of President Obama to the highest bidder. Even Congressman Jesse Jackson Jnr. and his wife are not spared either for daring to spend campaign funds on themselves. In communist china, a top party official was sentenced to jail for corruption while the uncle of the North Korean Leader was also recently convicted and killed for corruptive practices against the state.

In other climes, Gov. Amaechi and many of his likes will be cooling their asses in police cell awaiting trial for corruption, besides the fact that, he would have ceased to be the governor of Rivers State. Perhaps, Gov. Amaechi does not know that those who steal from the public have not been spared either by the laws of their land, which abhors corruption and corrupt practices. Unfortunately, this isn’t so because President Jonathan’s failure to provide leadership in the fight against corruption in Nigeria. Perhaps because he too is implicitly corrupt too, has chosen to gloss over the Gov. Amaechi’s comment regarding the stealing of government fund and bleeding of country’s coffers dry. Although Gov. Amaechi may be protected by immunity for now, his newly assumed ‘neo-progressive’ stance may not be enough to save him from future prosecution and jail-term for corruption.

As for Chief Obasanjo, his despicable roles in the emergence and elevation criminally motivated economic and political crimes in Nigeria is still very fresh in our minds and can never be forgiven. If Chief Obasanjo had allowed enthronement of genuine democracy in 2007, without forcing the duo of late Alhaji Umar Yar’ Adua and Goodluck Jonathan on Nigeria, perhaps the nations could have fare better. Just perhaps, corruption, insecurity, bad governance, may have been reduced to the barest minimum. Perhaps, our education and health sectors would have been better by now or be on the road to full restoration. Perhaps, had Chief Obasanjo strengthened the anti-corruption institutions like the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) while in the office, the likes of Gov. Amaechi and other thieves likes him including Chief Obasanjo  wouldn’t be as bold to bully Nigerians with their ill-gotten wealth and stolen largesse.

In addition, Dr. Jonathan, the only sit-in president presiding over a most corrupt and crime ridden Nigeria, and his fellow travellers would have exercised some caution in the daily destruction of Nigeria, if the judiciary hadn’t been compromised during Chief Obasanjo’s period in Nigeria. Sadly, this is not the case, and this explains why Nigeria has become a country of anything-goes. What a shame, the once vibrant most populous black nation has become a dancing floor for criminals to practice corruption and other vices. But lest, Gov. Amaechi and his fellow thieving friends across the political divide forget, the revolution in Nigeria is not far in the horizon and Nigerians will not just stone you thieves, but you will all be publicly tried for your crimes against the people and Nigeria and executed. The only regret for Gov. Amaechi and his fellow thieves is that they will not be able to use their private jets to escape the wrath of the people when Nigerians stand up. Finally, although thieves can become heroes just for a moment, a thief will remain a criminal forever and shall be brought to book according to the laws.

Anthony Kola-Olusanya is a teacher and citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. 

BEYOND MO IBRAHIM RANKING: ASUU AND THE INSINCERITY OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

It is no more news that President Goodluck Jonathan met with the leadership of the Academic Staff Union of Universities on November 4^th, 2013. By the end of the historic meeting between President Jonathan led team and ASUU leadership, it appeared the federal government (FG) was ready after all to resolve the lingering ASUU’s industrial strike action. According to Minister of Labour, Emeka Wogu, “the meeting ended positively and the message of the President to ASUU is full of hope and high expectations, and our prayer is that they come back with positive response. They might not even come back to meet us; they might even take decisions there that will meet your expectations.” Labour Minister Wogu also noted that “the offer made by the president was in line with the 2009 agreement reached with the union. The offer is within the issues that led to the strike; the issues contained in the 2009 agreement and we did not go beyond the agreement”. The breakdown of the new offer from the FG was that “the Federal Government would give N 1.1 Trillion to public universities in the next five (5) years. The government will release N220 Billion yearly into the sector beginning from 2014” towards revamping the Nigeria’s public universities.  The NUC, NLC and TUC as joint guarantors of the agreement while the Minister of Education will be the implementation officer. Also, the meeting agreed that the money will be placed in a special account at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).  

To an average layman or woman, the outcome of the meeting was a nice way for President Jonathan to earn praise from Nigerians for helping to resolve the logjam, which all the small men and women in and around his cabinet couldn’t deal with. Like the animated saviour of the people in the cartoon movie ‘Spiderman’, President Jonathan’s resolve and his 13 hours sitting with ASUU was commendable. A meeting which has earned him comparative credentials liken to that of late Dr. Nelson Mandela, hero and former President of the Republic South Africa, who spent 27 years in prison.  Of course, we cannot take it away from President Jonathan, this is by no means an achievement in a country where political office holders hold the citizens with a ‘go and die’ disdain.  Be that as it may, the positive resolution of the ASUU strike in November could have helped the President put his much vaunted ‘transformation agenda’ back on track and probably Nigeria on the part to being a member of the top 20 economies in the world by the year 2020. But all that appears to be history now.

What could have gone wronged, despite the President’s 13 hour sitting-down meeting with the lecturers’ union leaders? Nobody except the President and his men and women of his cabinet can tell. But as an outsider, I like every other Nigerian believes that the President Jonathan led federal government team are neither committed to the greatness of this country nor the welfare of its citizens. Reflectively, 27 months earlier, in 2011, when President Jonathan launched the transformation agenda with the pomp and glamour nobody could have doubted the fresh air blowing round the Nigeria’s political landscape. The Transformation Agenda is based on a summary of how the Federal Government hopes to deliver projects, programmes, and key priority policies, from 2011 to 2015 coordinated by the National Planning Commission (NPC). These key projects, programmes, and priority policies are not different from those contained in the Vision 20:2020. To attain the overarching goal of the vision 20:2020, key parameters such as polity, macro-economy, infrastructure, education, health, agriculture, and manufacturing would have to be met and sustained.

While the identified key parameters could be considered very potent, the education parameter appears to be the bedrock upon which all other parameters are built. The important role accorded education in this drive towards attainment of the vision’s goal for the country is crucial given that  the educational goal includes the provision of modern and vibrant education system, which provides for every Nigerian the opportunity and facility to achieve his/her maximum potential and provide the country with adequate and competent human power. By no means, education is a form of investment in human capital, which in turn yields economic benefits and contributes to a country's future wealth by increasing the productive capacity of the people. Suffice to say that the success of other sectors of the economy largely depends on the extent of support for the country’s educational development. Hence, without the provision of a vibrant educational or training system, it will be very difficult, if not impossible for the country to achieve the lofty aims contained in the vision 20:2020 and Millennium Development Goals (MDG).

With the ASUU strike in its 6^th month, it is gradually becoming obvious that the transformation agenda of the President Jonathan and Nigeria’s vision 20:2020 is in jeopardy. A revisit to the Mo Ibrahim IIAG ranking places Nigeria in the 41^st position in Africa behind more serious countries like Mauritius (82.9%), Botswana (77.6%) and Cape Verde (76.7%) in first, second and third position respectively. Whilst the top three leaders at the West African sub-regional level includes Ghana (66.8%), Senegal (61%) and the island nation of Sao Tome  and Principe (59.9%). Comparatively, at the continental level, the leading country on the IIAG ranking, in 2012, Mauritius devoted about 15% of its GDP and between 30 and 40% of her annual budget on education during the same period. Also between Ghana and Nigeria, Ghana in 2012 spent 8.2 per cent of its GDP on education while Nigeria spends 0.8 per cent of its GDP on education. Meanwhile, the combined earnings of the two countries are by far less than Nigeria’s during the same period. In addition, Southern African countries are spending about 35 to 45 per cent of their annual budget on education. This, therefore, forces the question of which country is richer and serious about its national development goals in relative terms? Of course, the answer to this question is not far-fetched, as this is very obvious with 2013 publication of IIAG ranking and the FG’s handling of the ongoing ASUU strike which has paralysed the top echelon of the country’s educational sector.

It goes without saying that the seriousness and commitment of a country to national development and institutional performance can be viewed from education sector performance. Education is universally recognized as a form of investment in human capital, which in turn yields economic benefits and contributes to a country's future wealth by increasing the productive capacity of its people. Universities all over the world are accepted as the citadel of knowledge, education and human resource development. The gross neglect of this sector by successive Nigerian governments over four decades, is a classical demonstration of the FG many double speaks on the issue of university funding. That President Jonathan would suddenly find solace in issuing threat of sack on the striking university teachers is a further demonstration of the fact that the FG and President Jonathan is not wholly committed to its own project and programs of both the vision 20:2020 and Transformation Agenda. Archetypically, the FG has not deviated from the norm, since it appears whether a military or civilian administration, there is a particular trend of line which must be toed. And this is to always obfuscate the issues; such that its resolution becomes a mirage, while the chaos continues in perpetuation.

This perhaps explains FG’s claim that ASUU was making new demands even when it was very obvious that there was nothing like that from ASUU and on the strength of that, the lecturers are to be sacked. On the issue of salaries for the period, ASUU is right to request for the withheld salaries since the strike is justified and rooted in the international Labour laws regarding lockouts and non-payment of salaries. International labour laws guiding lockouts or strikes stipulate inter-alia that “the employer shall not lockout employees during the tenure of the agreement” as well “employees shall not embark on strikes during the tenure of the agreement”. This clause is always fundamental clause in any labour agreements signed across the world to protect the system. I say this as someone who has previously participated in workers’ union negotiations both within and outside Nigeria. What this suggests, is, where the employer(s) lockout workers, the employers shall pay the workers remunerations and dues to them since the workers have not shown or demonstrate unwillingness to work. But where the employees embark on strike or lockout while the agreement subsists, the employees shall forfeit their dues and remunerations. There have never been troubles over this as parties are known to respect and implement agreements signed.

Now, what makes the present case of ASUU strike different is that the ongoing strike is aimed at forcing the FG to respect and implement an agreement it signed with the union in 2009. On the basis of this, the FG owe the university teachers hereto referred as the employees in the agreement their dues and remunerations for the period in question. Hence, ASUU justified in its request for the payment of the withheld monthly salaries as a condition for the suspension of the strike. Having said this, I need to quickly say that strike as a weapon is not a strange phenomenon throughout the world. Even in the global headquarters of capitalism, the United States of America (USA) and other G8 countries, workers do embark on strike when and if they needed to. Strikes are the only means with which employees can force their voice to be heard. No workers’ union is known to embark on needless strikes.

The accusation against ASUU strike as self-serving and politicised is grossly unfair and absurd. If anything, we should support ASUU in its fight against impunity and the revitalization of our universities. Our universities, polytechnics and colleges of education need serious intervention; otherwise the future of the country is doomed. I am at loss that it’s only when ASUU or any other workers’ union are on strike that things will collapse when it comes to funding issues. For the avoidance of doubt, it need be known that it was ASUU strikes that brought about Education Trust Fund (ETF) and Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND). Of course, ASUU or the universities is not the only beneficiary of these gains on the long run, the major beneficiary is the government and Nigeria. Further, any labour agreement being signed after a strike all over the world always carry a statement that no one will be penalized for taking part in the strike.  As per ASUU insisting that N200 billion should be deposited in universities accounts is not out of place. This is December 2013, if truly FG wants to start implementation this year, I don’t think this should generate any issue. The entire sack threat thing goes to confirm that FG is actually not interested in implementing the agreement. Nigerians must not forget that the present strike was called after the union had written 351 letters and met various government officials at least 150 times to remind government on the need to honour the agreement promise.

Beyond the issue of trust, let’s look at this from another angle. ASUU has not made any demand that the money should be in a special account in the CBN, this was agreed to by the President as a guarantee that the money will be safe. ASUU had requested from the President that an official of the Federal Government at the level of a Minister preferably the Attorney General and Minister for Justice sign on behalf of the FG so that the agreement/resolution will have the force of Law. This, President Jonathan himself had guaranteed ASUU; that it will be done also. This is not too much to do if the President and FG actually love Nigeria and believe in the great future for the country.

After all the shenanigans, it’s a welcome development that the FG has acceded to ASUU by signing the memorandum of the understanding (MOU).  According to the MOU, the FG is to fulfill all the obligations agreed upon during President Jonathan’s November meeting with ASUU, including the non-victimization clause. For a country that has grown weary with FG’s lies and half-truths, let’s hope the FG will demonstrate good faith by implementing this newly signed MOU. For the avoidance of any doubt, the MOU among other issues stipulates that the FG will inject N200 billion yearly beginning from 2013 towards revitalization of the country’s universities over the next five years.

Anthony Kola-Olusanya is a teacher and citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

MO IBRAHIM RANKING, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND ASUU STRIKE

Anthony Kola-Olusanya

On July 1^st, 2013, the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) embarked on an industrial strike to force the federal government of Nigeria (FG) to implement the 2009 Agreement, which the later had signed with the union. The agreement, which was largely about the revitalisation of the university education system in Nigeria, is anchored on FG’s massive fund infusion into Nigeria’s publicly funded universities (federal and states owned). Like previous agreements, the FG decided it wasn’t going to honour the 2009 agreement. This decision not to honour and respect an agreement it signed with ASUU was based on two reasons which includes; a flimsy excuse that the Nigeria’s economy will shut down, should the FG implement the content of the 2009 Agreement. Secondly, on the arrogance that the FG will appear weak should it implement the agreement it had signed with ASUU in 2009. It is suffice to say that the FG took this decision after it had conducted the needs assessment towards implementation of the 2009 agreement through two separate committees like 2009 ASUU\FGN Agreement Needs Assessment Committee and ASUU\FGN 2009 Agreement Implementation Committee. The later committee would round up its work later in 2011 with a commitment from the President and other stakeholders on the FGN side promising that there would never be a strike in the nation’s public universities for a long time.

While the university teacher strike was going on, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation published its 2013 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) in October. Established in 2007, the IIAG is the most comprehensive collection of quantitative data on governance in Africa. The index is compiled in partnership with experts from a number of the continent's institutions. It also provides an annual assessment of governance in every African country. The IIAG provides a framework for citizens, governments, institutions and business to assess the delivery of public goods and services, and policy outcomes, across Africa. The index is classified into four categories namely; safety and rule of law; participation and human rights; sustainable economic opportunity and human development. Today, the IIAG is recognized as the barometer for measuring government performance in Africa.

Overall, the index ranked Nigeria in 41^st position out of 52 countries in Africa in relation to governance and leadership in Africa. The implication of this present ranking is that Nigeria ranked 9^th when we talk about countries without good leadership and lacks good governance. The sad point of the ranking is that many countries like Liberia, Sierra Leone among others who are just coming out years of civil war, ranked above Nigeria. Besides the overall ranking, Nigeria also showed poor ranking in other specific areas. Within the West African sub-region, Nigeria also ranked a dismal 16^th position out of 19 countries, overall in good governance and leadership. Of note is the country’s ranking in education, and human development, which are both sub-components of human resource development (HRD). Nigeria ranked 30^th and scoring 49% below the African average (52.9) and lower than the regional average (52.5) for West Africa, in provision of education to its citizens. With respects to human development, Nigeria ranked 33^rd in Africa, scoring 52.7%, a score considered lower than the continental average (58.3) and 43.4 below than the regional average (52.5) for West Africa respectively. Before going any further, it is instructive to note that at the top three positions in Africa are countries Nigerians would categorize as small nations like Mauritius (82.9%), Botswana (77.6%) and Cape Verde (76.7%) in first, second and third position respectively. Whilst the top three leaders at the west African sub-regional level includes Ghana (66.8%), Senegal (61%) and the island nation of Sao Tome  and Principe (59.9%). At the bottom of the table on the continent are Somali and Chad at the sub-regional level.

What is responsible for these countries’ success in Africa and West Africa? Both Mauritius and Ghana cannot  and do not earn as much as Nigeria, but unlike the self-acclaimed giant of Africa, the small African country - Mauritius education budget hovers around 13-15% of the annual budget in 2013. Ghana on her part allocated 33% of annual budget to education during the same period. What this suggests is that these two countries placed huge emphasis on human capital development since only an adequately-funded education sector can guarantee as well develop the much needed human capital that will help transform these countries. Sadly, Nigeria’s 2013 allocation to education is only a paltry 8% of the annual budget. In essence, the IIAG leading ranked countries at both the continental and sub-regional levels are doing some things which Nigeria  is not doing; especially when one considers the federal government (FG) much vaunted commitment to ‘transformation agenda’ and the so-called vision 20:2020.  

An assessment of the Mauritius economy revealed a concrete demonstration towards national development. It is an understatement to say that Mauritius has a strong human capital foundation developed through consistent and equitable investment in human development. The goal of the island country is becoming a knowledge economy. This goal is not impossible given that education is free and has been expanded in recent years, in order to create further employment opportunities and ensuring inclusive growth. Return on investment in education, shows that around 90% of entrepreneurs are Mauritian nationals, and business people had the human capital, education and knowledge needed to exploit market opportunities. Interesting too Mauritius is one of the least corrupt African countries. On the contrary, the latest values of Human Development Index (HDI) which provides a country’s measure of human capital development (in areas such as income, health, and education) show that Nigeria is ranked 156 with the value of 0.459 among 187 countries. The value places Nigeria in the bottom, meaning that Nigeria is considered to have low level of human development. The comparative value for Sub-Saharan Africa is 0.475 and 0.694 for the world average and this places Nigeria a little below the continental average with an HDI of 0.471.

Comparatively, two issues among others speak to Nigeria’s dismal overall performance on the continent and in the sectional areas of education and human development in this year’s IIAG rankings. One is the lukewarm posture of the FG lip service to educational development. Second is the gross under-funding of the educational sector. These two issues underscores our poor performance even areas in which Nigeria is noted to be doing well in forty–fifty years ago. As well, both issues are directly linked to the ongoing ASUU strike which is about to enter the sixth month. Another pointer to this dismal performance is that no serious country desirous of meeting its developmental goals don’t allow its university teachers to go on strike to pressure government to do what governments in other sister African countries do without pressure or prompting of any union.

A search through the internet failed to reveal any strike action by the university teachers in the IIAG top countries on the continent. In the West Africa sub-region for example, the university teachers across Ghana on Monday, August 1, 2013, embarked on a nationwide industrial action to protest unpaid market premium. The notice of strike served on the Ghanaian government prompted an emergency meeting of the Fair Wages and Salaries Commission (FWSC) was called in order to avert the strike. In addition, the deputy minister in charge of tertiary education, Okudzeto Ablakwa would later assured university teachers their outstanding premiums will be settled. The strike action was resolved within a few days. What we see in this approach and prompt response by Ghanaian authorities when compared to Nigeria’s is an example of good governance and leadership. Little wonder Ghana is attracting students from all over the world including Nigeria to her universities.

Meanwhile, rather than provide leadership by either preventing or resolving the strike, FG has continued to play the roulette game with future of the teeming youths in public universities across the country. Instead of addressing the issues of non-implementation of 2009 agreement it signed with university teachers’ union, the federal government has continued to behave like the proverbial ostrich that buries its head in the sand by pretending that all is well with the public universities system. Although, President Jonathan in November had personally intervened in the fifth month of the strike, events following the meeting with ASUU have further exposed FG’s unwillingness to respect and be bounded by its own proposal.

 At this juncture, it is necessary for the FG and President Jonathan to know that Nigeria didn’t get this all-time low in one year. The crisis of the educational sector, vis a vis university education and by implication human development occurred as a result of the decades of neglect, massive funding cut as well as gross under-funding has been with us for many decades. The same way, I would like note that Mauritius, Botswana and Cape Verde did not appear as African top three countries, but years of serious planning and commitment towards greatness. President Jonathan needs to be aware that sacking all university teachers in one day does not portray him and his regime in good light. Indeed, for a government who is laying claim to a transformation agenda built on the back of the vision 20: 2020, mass sacking of university teachers will not only deny Nigeria the much needed human capital, his transformation agenda and vision 20:2020 will also suffer monumentally.

So rather than waste time sacking the university teachers, the federal government and President Jonathan need to be concerned about how to improve Nigeria’s position on the IIAG from 2014 and beyond. The FG need to stand up and confront the monster called under-funding that has reduced the once enviable Nigeria’s public universities to a shadow of itself by injecting huge funds towards the revitalization of universities. Doing this, will lead to cascade of gains for the country, for which the FG and indeed President Jonathan can celebrate. Chief among the gains will be brain-gain for the universities. Furthermore, Nigerian universities will become the place to go for Nigerian youths who are daily leaving the country for study abroad never to return and the nation would have saved the best for human resource for the country.  In addition, foreign students will also return to Nigerian universities with the educational sector reaping some foreign exchange from the international students.

I have concentrated on the educational sector and indirectly university education because of the multiplier effect of such investments for any country desirous of growth and indeed greatness. The successes and gains of investing in education including universities would naturally reverberate through the whole system in unimaginable ways. Finally, I urge President Jonathan to sit again with ASUU and resolve this crisis once and for all. Mr. President Sir, ASUU’s demands which includes adequate funding to revitalize the university system, progressive increase of budgetary allocations to the education sector to 26 per cent, transfer of Federal Government property to universities, setting up of research and development units by companies are strategic to Nigeria’s growth and development.  Therefore, there can be no other alternative than to resolve this lingering crisis, except you, Mr. President, and indeed your entire administration is satisfied with Nigeria’s continued ranking among the lowly performing governments of the world.

Anthony Kola-Olusanya is a teacher and citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

CONSCIENCE, NURTURED BY TRUTH: SHALL WE PRAY PLEASE?

CONSCIENCE, NURTURED BY TRUTH: SHALL WE PRAY PLEASE?: SHALL WE PRAY PLEASE Anthony Kola-Olusanya O God of creation Direct our noble cause Guide thou our leaders right Help our y...

SHALL WE PRAY PLEASE?

SHALL WE PRAY PLEASE

Anthony Kola-Olusanya

O God of creation

Direct our noble cause

Guide thou our leaders right

Help our youth the truth to know

In love and honesty to grow

And living just and true

Great lofty heights attain

To build a nation where peace

                                            

And justice shall reign.The above second stanza of Nigeria’s national anthem was recently adopted as the official national prayer by the President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, at a recent executive meeting. Without doubt, every line of the second stanza of the anthem is very motivating and inspiring. Looking away from motivation and inspiration, it also speaks to the direction and future the country should follow. A direction anchored on freedom, justice, equity and nationalistic goals - expectedly, a direction also embedded in the constitutional democracy the country is presently practicing. Of most significance here is a nation’s future, goals, aspiration and interest anchored on the youth population of the country and their ability to rise up to the challenges of nation building.

Before going further, I would like to dwell a bit on some lines from the second stanza which are “O God of creation, Direct our noble cause, Guide thou our leaders right”. No doubt for a country in search for visionary leadership to propel her to greatness, to spur development, the second stanza is evidently an appropriate prayer. Instructive though is the message of the first three lines of the second stanza, which a prayer to God of creation to take charge of efforts at the building of the nation, as well as providing guidance to the leaders as they deliver on the good promises of nation building. However, today, Nigeria is lacking in visionary leaders that could dream for the country. The country lacks a leadership that has neither a clear understanding nor the importance of these three opening lines of the second stanza. To them, truth, love, honestly, just living, peace and justice are relative terms best translated from their dictionary filled with physical and intellectual debaucheries. The unfortunate is that those who rule today lacked greatly in conscience and morals, as they now assume that barefaced looting and stripping the people and country of its resources is a noble course.

The next few lines which were directed at the youth – the hope and future of the country “Help our youth the truth to know, in love and honesty to grow, and living just and true, great lofty heights attain”, appears more like an appeasement such that the youths will understand the necessity of the a strong nation built upon strong moral and nationalistic values.  Ironically, many of the youths of today, especially those born in 1976 are presently 36 years old. For this generation of youths, it’s been a mix bag of experiences growing up and living in Nigeria. This generations of Nigerians, constitute the large army of unemployed youths. They are not known to have witnessed 24-hour uninterrupted power supply, standard of living and education are nothing to write home about for these generation. As children of subsidies removal, they also have the misfortune of experiencing debilitating poverty, grand-scale corruption under both military and present day politicians, in addition to the destruction of everything that are beautiful about Nigeria.  Despite their experiences, the generation and the ones earlier have continued to fight vigorously to reclaim Nigeria. Yet, the political leaders of today still view them in the future as leaders in our gerontocratic system of government. At this juncture, it is apt  to ask President Jonathan and his praying cabinet, when will be the turn of the youths for whom these lines were “Help our youth the truth to know, in love and honesty to grow, and living just and true, great lofty heights attain”

It is noteworthy that when this anthem was put together in 1976, as a sequel to the assassination of General Murtala Mohammed at age 36, by the successor regime of General Olusegun Obasanjo (who at the time was in his mid 30s), it was in reaction to the anti-British sentiments in Nigeria then, as a fall out of the killing of General Mohammed. At that time Gen Obasanjo and his colleagues in the supreme military council (SMC) nationalized all British interests in Nigeria, including the British Petroleum as well as discarded the old national anthem. The new national anthem, whose first stanza started with a clarion call to Nigerians, “arise O compatriots, Nigeria calls obey”, was deemed appropriate at that time. Of course, it was a period of deep national fervour and patriotism. It was a period that many independence children (that is, children born when Nigeria attained flag independence) were in their teens and it was an age of defiance. Alongside those pre-independence compatriots, a new nation was about to be born. From 1976 to 1993, was an age of ideas, dreams, visions and revolutionary direction. It was a period when Nigeria was the jewel of the world and a true big brother in the pan African movement black world, south-south politics, and global south. It was the age of actuality, Nigeria called on the world and most of the world boycotted the 1976 Olympics in Montréal, Canada.  It was a period when our voice was heard and heeded. Nigeria needn’t have to make cacophonic noise to be heard, there were no pretensions to our national self esteem. Our leaders and administrators were clear and sound (or at least appear so) about where we wanted to be as country and nation of people under the sun.

However, thirty six years after the present national anthem was imposed on the national psyche to replace the old national anthem, we are once again at a period where leaders feel that only a national prayer would be enough to get the country out of its present precarious economic and political doldrums. It is no more a contestable fact that Nigeria is at a crossroads today. Like the Sudoku game, you need a power of understanding of the word to play. Failure, in this sense, could be regarded as a failure for failing to understand the rules of the game.  Similar to a jigsaw puzzle, the Sudoku is an ancient brain teasing game from the Japanese. Solving a Sudoku puzzle can be rather tricky, but the rules of the game are quite simple. Solving a Sudoku puzzle does not require knowledge of mathematics; simple logic suffices. Like the Sudoku game, solving Nigeria’s teething economic and political problems do not require some rhyme called national prayer, simple logic and commitment to the future of the country as well as ability to just do the right suffices.

However, governance in the present day thirteen years of civil rule inherited by President Jonathan has become more than a jigsaw puzzle or Sudoku game. Today, criminality reigns in all spheres of the nation, with the complete and total breakdown of law, corruption reigns supreme and outlaws have become persons of national interest and reliance. The last thirteen years have seen Nigeria selling more crude oil and making more revenue than any other time in history, yet, the national treasury has continue to dwindle. It even got worse that it became a national discourse that Nigeria is financially broke and everyone has been waiting for the doomsday. With insecurity across the country, the menace of Boko Haram, in the Northern parts of the country, kidnapping and armed banditry have continued without abating even in the southern parts of the country, where people are in self denial that their lives are secured than those of other fellow citizens in the Northern Nigeria. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, religious bigotry has assumed a national prominence, many deaths being recorded in attack and reprisal attacks more than any other time in our history.

From our past history anchored on ideas and hardwork, to the present day country anchored on nepotism and corruption, Nigeria has not fared any better in the past thirteen years of self-rule governance at all. A once hopeful country has been led into hopelessness by a gang of hopeless people, who have failed the country and people in all ramifications. In the same light, for the first time in our history, President Jonathan did what other past rulers never did. He absolved himself of the responsibilities and complicities in the crisis currently facing Nigeria. What an heart-wrenching period for Nigeria, with more than 25 million underemployed or unemployed, Nigerian youths in the non existing job market, the government of Jonathan resolved that unemployment is best tackled by organizing lottery raffle called “YouWin” for your youths to instigate their entrepreneurial brain and skills. Evidently, this is not surprising; the YouWin program is reflection of the times, like many other television reality contest shows such as Big brother Africa, Guilder Ultimate Search, Project Fame, Nigerian Idol to name a few among many reality shows currently playing in Nigeria.

A researcher once wrote, children of these days don’t resemble their parents, they resemble their generation. But the case in Nigeria today speak differently maxim, rather than help give direction and chart a path to greatness, we are now a witness to a federal government resembling the times. Not even the much touted credentials and global connections of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iwealla, President Jonathan government’s Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Finance Minister has helped in reining-in corruption, extra-budgetary spending and profligacy in the country. Under the President’s watch, Nigeria and Nigerians has become hostage to self-seeking religious, economic and politically devious minded impostors who unfortunately are the owners of this government considering their closeness to the President Jonathan and his cabinet members.

This writer agrees that the current problems facing Nigeria, is gargantuan and can be frustrating too. But to think that solutions to these problems can happen through prayers, without any recourse to genuine people oriented development plans and policies is to say the least comedic. The recent adoption of the national anthem’s second stanza as a national prayer is another sign of government resembling the times. The adoption further demonstrates the extent to which religion (Christianity and Islam) has been elevated to in our national life. In 2011, President Jonathan was pictured kneeling down and being blessed by Pastor Enoch Adeboye at the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) Convention. A lot of Nigerians fell for it and believe that when a government functionary goes to the church/or mosque he/she is chosen by God as such he/she deserves to be followed blinded. To the contrary, this writer has continued to hold onto the opinion that it’s all photo-op. Almost a year later, President Jonathan and his executives, perhaps for lack of how to fool the people, directed us to prayer, this time by reciting a portion of the national anthem as prayer. Of course, President Jonathan and his cabinet know too well that once you ask Nigerians to follow them to God, the people, noted for their gullibility which is erroneously  being taken as being very religious will definitely follow them even if blindly. While prayer is good, and of course this writer does not doubt the efficacy of prayers for those who believe in them, even the faithful of the different religions agreed on one point that ‘faith without work is death’.

From nursery, through primary and secondary school, children and pupils are mandated to sing and recite both the national anthem and pledge every morning. One would have thought that like the Nigerian children and school pupils, political office holders would sing and recite the national pledge daily. Perhaps, this would have motivated them to serve the country and do what is right for the people. But what we have are bunch of men and women who neither sing along the national anthem nor recite national pledge. And yet, these same people can sit down and prescribe prayer lines and notes to Nigerians. On many occasions, these men and women have been seen lip-singing the national anthem and deafly mute during the pledge recital at public gatherings.

What amuses me as a person is that the pronouncement will be carried too far to fanaticism. By the way, who told them that we lack commitment towards Nigeria and that our nationalism has waned? The truth there is that too many issues occurring in today's Nigeria that are capable of erupting  peoples anger against the present leaders that Jonathan and his executives knows, and they needed to quickly engage the minds of many poor average Nigerians. This is because average Nigerian like every other Africans across the world is very religious. At the same time, the Jonathan government also understands that there are willing partners in the many religious houses on both divide, who will go with them is this present fakery called national prayer.

Yet, I agree; religion is a big issue in our country, because we have made it so. Religion affords us the opportunity to sidestep our problems and looking towards the sky and pretend that we are looking up towards heaven and God. I hope people know that even the Israelites – the-so-called Biblical children of God needed arms and ammunition to defend and survive in the Middle East. They could have prayed their enemies away. The United States of America (USA) had to go to Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen supposedly to find and kill terrorists,  President George Bush could have led them in series of prayers, but he chose the war option because an average American knows that problems are never solved when you are on your kneels. It is so sad, that we have been reduced to a praying people, country and government. Prayers are at best wishes of things we require from the all almighty. It is not prayer that move a country, people or nation and government forward... it is hard work at solutions to problems. As it appears, it’s like Nigeria has achieved something from Dr. Yakubu Gowon’s (a retired army General who ruled Nigeria from age 29 to about 39 years old between 1966 and 1976) pet programme, ‘Nigeria Pray’. This writer is not unmindful of certain groups of Nigerians (including those who are daily raping Nigeria) who are quick to remind us all that Nigeria would have perished via disintegration if not for prayers. To these groups, I would like to point to history, the present civil rule in Nigeria was not attained through prayers, it was through blood, sweat and tears of some Nigerians (dead or alive) who gave their all to the military back to their barracks.  

But since religion and miracle-seeking has become a national pastime, shall we all stand, kneel, crouch, crawl and bow and pray that Boko Haram, corruption, poverty, economic stagnation, bad roads, poor educational and health facilities, profligacy, debauchery vanish from our country. One critical point which is very clear to President Jonathan and his pretentious cabinet is that, God is not answering their prayers because of their insincerity. If I have my way, I will banish religion from Nigeria; unfortunately I don't have such powers...so we shall continue to pray....Mr. President Shall pray please?


Anthony Kola-Olusanya is the author of this write up.

IF NIGERIANS MUST PAY HIGHER FOR FUEL, GEJ and GOVERNMENT MUST REFUND NIGERIANS WHAT IT OWES THEM...

by Anthony Kola-Olusanya, PhD.

Never before has a date in history been so significant to so many cultures, so many religions, scientists, and governments. "2012" is an epic adventure about a global cataclysm that brings an end to the world and tells of the heroic struggle of the survivors. 2012 Movie

At the beginning of the year 2011, many Nigerians had greater than life expectations. At the time, many spiritual leaders and prophets including traditionalists, seers, parapsychologists all had the same message for Nigerians, “that Nigeria will be better for it at the April 2011 Elections and that Nigeria will be better for it at the end of the year”. This prophetic revelations and predictions formed the basis of decision on the part of most Nigerians to come out enmasse to participate in the last general elections. It was in the same year that Nigerians saw a presidential candidate trying to connect with the people by speaking of the link he shared with them.

Presidential candidate Goodluck Ebele Jonathan told us all that like most Nigerians alive today that he didn’t go to school wearing shoes, and that if he can do it then every Nigerian child born and unborn can do it. Interestingly too, it was in 2011 that many more Nigerians were lost to civil strives occasioned by the state of insecurity and federal government ineptitude in the country. At the end of the elections, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan emerged ‘victorious’ in an election that was heavily condemned by the opposition as fraught with many examples of election malpractices. 2011 was also a year that saw an executive president begging a candidate for ministerial position to come work for him. The same year, also saw for the first time the emergence and appointment of a supervisory minister in Nigeria. Year 2011, also the advancement of right-wing and anti-people arguments to convince Nigerians on the need for the removal of the ‘subsidy’ on petroleum and attempt by President Jonathan and his cabinet to consult widely employing IBB style (a populist debate to rationalise government action).

But the interesting thing about the so-called state sponsored consultations and debates was that before the consultations and debates had ended, President Jonathan on the January 1, 2012, through Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) announced the removal of ‘subsidy’ on fuel in Nigeria, as a kind of New Year (2012) gift. As if 2012 will be different, prophets, parapsychologists and their likes had barely concluded their predictions before Nigerians are been asked to pay more than 215% in pump price for fuel (that is premium motor spirit PMS). Reports in the media pointed toward the real effects (backlash) are already being felt by the people with multiplier dimensions. To say prices have gone up is an understatement. However the crux of the matter here is no more the hike and its multiplier effects, nor Dr. Christopher Kolade’s board of the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme, neither is it Justice Alfa Belgore’s committee which is expected to dialogue with organized labour. It is that federal government of Nigeria owes Nigerians trillions of Naira which must be paid back, so that the people can pay for the consequences of the ‘subsidy’ withdrawal. Paying this amount is not a favour that palliatives from the two groups appointed by President Jonathan can negotiate away.

Fact of figures is that the Nigeria federal government is presently (at the time of writing this piece) owing Nigerians a total of over Sixty four trillion, two hundred and sixty-six billion and sixty million naira (N64, 266,060, 000, 000 trillion) in excess amount paid for fuel over the last 12 years of the present civilian dispensation. The figure represents the combined contributions by Nigerians to the now defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) and in Road Tax or Levy collected over the last 9 years (following the dismantling of toll gates and stoppage toll fares collection across the country. For the avoidance of doubt, when in 1994, the late General Sani Abacha military regime increased pump price of fuel to N17 per litre, and at the same time placed a N2 per litre surcharge on every litre of petrol bought by Nigerians. The regime explained to Nigerians that the money accruing from the surcharge will be administered by PTF to supplement government spending on infrastructural provisions across the country. PTF was disbanded by President Olusegun Obasanjo on assumption of office and directed appropriate ministries to take over the function of PTF.

However, the disbandment of PTF did not lead to cancellation of the Abacha N2 fuel surcharge by President Obasanjo. Rather than reduce the pump price, fuel price went up by almost 350% to N65 per litre. In the same vein, following the dismantling of the toll gates and subsequent cancellation of toll collection on Nigeria roads in 2003, President Obasanjo also introduced road tax of about N2.50. For ease of collection, the amount was also built into the N65 pump price for petrol. This also mean that for every litre of fuel purchased at pump, Nigerians has been and this collection has been ongoing for the last nine (9) years. As a follow-up, to the ‘subsidy’ withdrawal, President Jonathan is already mulling the return of tolls on Nigeria’s roads through cronies masquerading as private investors despite the huge amount of money contributed by Nigerians to maintain the same roads through road tax or levy.

According to a pilot study of used oils in Nigeria conducted by Prof. O. A. Bamiro (National Expert) and Prof. O. Osibanjo (Project Coordinator) for the Basel Convention Secretariat, there are a total of six million (6M) registered vehicles in Nigeria as of 2004. Of the 6million vehicles, sixty percent (60%) are cars or 4,200,000 cars (4.2m), while the remaining 1, 800,000 (1.8m) are trucks and buses. By 2007, the number has risen to seven million (7m) according to the Federal Roads Safety Commission (FRSC). This data from the FRSC therefore suggests that a million vehicles are registered in Nigeria every three year. Therefore, relying on the 2007 data from FRSC, the total number of registered vehicles in Nigeria at the end of year 2011 is 8m with a total of approximately 6m being numbers for cars while trucks and buses translate to approximately 2m.

Going by simple economics and mathematics, eight million (8m) vehicles will translate to about 50 vehicles for every 1000 Nigerians. Therefore, if we go by statistics provided by Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) that a total of 445, 000 litres of fuel is consumed daily in Nigeria. Factoring NNPC data on daily consumption, it therefore suggest that a total of 2670 million litres is consumed weekly based on twice a week fuel refill which translates to 1, 38,840,000,000 trillion litres for 52 weeks. In 12 years, Nigerians would have consumed a total of 16, 66, 080, 000,000 litres and by implication paid a total of N33, 32, 160, 000,000 trillion in excess for fuel going by the N2 fuel surcharge of 1996 which was cancelled in 1999.

As a corollary, based on the annual fuel consumption of 1, 38,840,000,000 trillion litres, the total consumption for 9 years since the stoppage of toll collection on Nigerian roads and introduction of N2 road tax and levy is 12, 49, 560, 000, 000 trillion litres and by implication paid a total of N24, 99, 120, 000,000 in excess payment for pump price of petroleum. This combination of the Abacha fuel surcharge and OBJ road tax accumulate to a total of N64, 266,060, 000, 000 trillion and the amount represent the amount being owed Nigerians.  Having painstakingly established the amount being owed Nigerians by successive government since 1999, it is rather surprising that none on the government side has bothered to mention these invaluable contributions of Nigerians towards the boosting the country’s economy and by implication development and maintenance of the same infrastructures as the purported President Jonathan’s proceeds from ‘subsidy’ removal would be directed towards.

From the foregoing, it is evidently established that ordinary Nigerians have been subsidising pump price of fuel used since 1994 and by implication the provision and maintenance of infrastructures such roads, hospitals, schools (including funding universities, polytechnics and monotechnics), among others. Had this amount been judiciously directed towards the original purposes they were went to serve including the refurbishment and maintenance of the four (4) existing refineries like the PTF did under retired General Buhari as the chairman of PTF, there would not have been a complete breakdown and degeneration of these infrastructures. This goes to buttress the arguments that the real problem as attested to by President Jonathan, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and CBN Governor Lamido Sanusi is corruption and not the pump price of fuel.

From the analysis presented in this write up, it is very clear the government and its spin doctors and fuzzy economists can come forward to ask, how do we share the money? This is very simple; there is no need to physically return this money to every Nigerian. This amount can count towards paying for the so-called subsidy for the next 21years 8months, factoring the phantom amount being claimed by President Jonathan at three trillion (N3trillion) as the ‘true cost of the subsidy’ per year. This appears an easy way out for a federal government so desperate to play to IMF/World Bank dictates and to present itself as fellow traveller that shares the pains of Nigerians. However, should the federal government and its supporters in state houses prefer not to consider this option, I dare to say, this new year 2012 may become a significant one that will determine whether the current civilian democratic experiment will last or not. 

REAL COST OF FUEL PRESENTLY IN NIGERIA, BUT ARE WE BEING DECEIVED BY THE GOVERNMENT!!!

By Izielen Agbon Izielen Agbon

On December 10, 2011, if you stopped at the Mobil filling station on Old Aba Road in Port Harcourt , you would be able to buy a litre of petrol for 65 naira or $1.66 per gallon at an exchange rate of $1/N157 and 4 litres per gallon. This is the official price. The government claims that this price would have been subsidized at N73/litre and that the true price of a litre of petrol in Port Harcourt is N138/litre or $3.52 per gallon.

They are therefore determined to remove their subsidy and sell the gallon at $3.52. But, On December 10, 2011, if you stopped at the Mobil Gas station on E83rd St and Flatlands Avenue in Brooklyn, New York, USA, you would be a able to buy a gallon of petrol for $3.52/gallon. Both gallons of petrol would have been refined from Nigerian crude oil. The only difference would be that the gallon in New York was refined in a US North East refinery from Nigerian crude exported from the Qua Iboe Crude Terminal in Nigeria while the Port Harcourt gallon was either refined in Port Harcourt or imported. The idea that a gallon of petrol from Nigerian crude oil cost the same in New York as in Port Harcourt runs against basic economic logic. Hence, Nigerians suspect that there is something irrational and fishy about such pricing. What they would like to know is the exact cost of 1 litre of petrol in Nigeria .

We will answer this question in the simplest economic terms despite the attempts of the Nigerian government to muddle up the issue. What is the true cost of a litre of petrol in Nigeria ? The Nigerian government has earmarked 445000 barrel per day throughput for meeting domestic refinery products demands. These volumes are not for export. They are public goods reserved for internal consumption. We will limit our analysis to this volume of crude oil. At the refinery gate in Port Harcourt, the cost of a barrel of Qua Iboe crude oil is made up of the finding /development cost ($3.5/bbl) and a production/storage /transportation cost of $1.50 per barrel.

Thus, at $5 per barrel, we can get Nigerian Qua Iboe crude to the refining gates at Port Harcourt and Warri. One barrel is 42 gallons or 168 litres. The price of 1 barrel of petrol at the Depot gate is the sum of the cost of crude oil, the refining cost and the pipeline transportation cost. Refining costs are at $12.6 per barrel and pipeline distribution cost are $1.50 per barrel. The Distribution Margins (Retailers, Transporters, Dealers, Bridging Funds, Administrative charges etc) are N15.49/litre or $16.58 per barrel. The true cost of 1 litre of petrol at the Mobil filling station in Port Harcourt or anywhere else in Nigeria is therefore ($5 +$12.6+$1.5+$16.6) or $35.7 per barrel . This is equal to N33.36 per litre compared to the official price of N65 per litre. Prof. Tam David West is right. There is no petrol subsidy in Nigeria . Rather the current official prices are too high. Let us continue with some basic energy economics.

The government claims we are currently operating our refineries at 38.2% efficiency. When we refine a barrel of crude oil, we get more than just petrol. If we refine 1 barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil, we will get 45 gallons of petroleum products. The 45 gallons of petroleum products consist of 4 gallons of LPG, 19.5 gallons of Gasoline, 10 gallons of Diesel, 4 gallons of Jet Fuel/Kerosene, 2.5 gallons of Fuel Oil and 5 gallons of Bottoms. Thus, at 38.2% of refining capacity, we have about 170000 bbls of throughput refined for about 13.26 million litres of petrol, 6.8 million litres of diesel and 2.72 million litres of kerosene/jet fuel.

This is not enough to meet internal national demand. So, we send the remaining of our non-export crude oil volume (275000 barrels per day) to be refined abroad and import the petroleum product back into the country. We will just pay for shipping and refining. The Nigerian government exchanges the 275000 barrels per day with commodity traders (90000 barrels per day to Duke Oil, 60000 barrels per day to Trafigura (Puma Energy), 60000 barrels per day to Societe Ivoirienne de Raffinage (SIR) in Abidjan, Ivory Coast and 65000 barrels per days to unknown sources) in a swap deal. The landing cost of a litre of petrol is N123.32 and the distribution margins are N15.49 according to the government. The cost of a litre is therefore (N123.32+N15.49) or N138.81 . This is equivalent to $3.54 per gallon or $148.54 per barrel. In technical terms, one barrel of Nigerian crude oil has a volume yield of 6.6% of AGO, 20.7% of Gasoline, 9.5% of Kerosene/Jet fuel, 30.6% of Diesel, 32.6% of Fuel oil / Bottoms when it is refined.

Using a netback calculation method, we can easily calculate the true cost of a litre of imported petrol from swapped oil. The gross product revenue of a refined barrel of crude oil is the sum of the volume of each refined product multiplied by its price. Domestic prices are $174.48/barrel for AGO, $69.55/barrel for Gasoline (PMS or petrol), $172.22/barrel for Diesel Oil, $53.5/barrel for Kerosene and $129.68/barrel for Fuel Oil. Let us substitute the government imported PMS price of $148.54 per barrel for the domestic price of petrol/gasoline. Our gross product revenue per swapped barrel would be (174.48*0.066 +148.54*0.207+172.22*0.306+ 53.5*0.095+129.68*0.326) or $142.32 per barrel. We have to remove the international cost of a barrel of Nigerian crude oil ($107 per barrel) from this to get the net cost of imported swapped petroleum products to Nigerian consumers. The net cost of swapped petroleum products would therefore be $142.32 -$107 or $35.32 per barrel of swapped crude oil. This comes out to be a net of $36.86 per barrel of petrol or N34.45 per litre.

This is the true cost of a litre of imported swapped petrol and not the landing cost of N138 per litre claimed by the government. The pro-subsidy Nigerian government pretends the price of swapped crude oil is $0 per barrel (N0 per litre) while the resulting petroleum products is $148.54 per barrel (N138 per litre). The government therefore argues that the “subsidy” is N138.81-N65 or N73.81 per litre. But, if landing cost of the petroleum products is at international price ($148.54 per barrel), then the take-off price of the swapped crude oil should be at international price ($107 per barrel). This is basic economic logic outside the ideological prisms of the World Bank. The traders/petroleum products importers and the Nigerian government are charging Nigerians for the crude oil while they are getting it free.

So let us conclude this basic economic exercise. If the true price of 38.2% of our petrol supply from our local refinery is N33.36/litre and the remaining 61.8% has a true price of N34.45 per litre, then the average true price is (0.382*33.36+0.618*34.45) or N34.03 per litre. The official price is N65 per litre and the true price with government figures is about N34 per litre (even with our moribund refineries).

There is therefore no petrol subsidy. Rather, there is a high sales tax of 91.2% at current prices of N65 per litre. The labor leaders meeting the President should go with their economists. They should send economists and political scientists as representatives to the Senate Committee investigating the petroleum subsidy issue. There are many expert economists and political scientists in ASUU who will gladly represent the view of the majority. The labor leaders should not let anyone get away with the economic fallacy that the swapped oil is free while its refined products must be sold at international prices in the Nigerian domestic market.

The government should explain at what price the swapped crude oil was sold and where the money accruing from these sales have been kept. We have done this simple economic analysis of the Nigerian petroleum products market to show that there is no petrol subsidy what so ever. In the end, this debate on petrol subsidy and the attempt of the government to transfer wealth from the Nigerian masses to a petrol cabal will be decided in the streets. Nigerian workers, farmers, students, market women, youths, unemployed, NGO and civil society as a whole should prepare for a long harmattan season of protracted struggle. They should not just embark on 3 days strike/protests after which the government reduces the hiked petroleum prices by a few Nairas. They must embark upon in a sustainable struggle that will lead to fundamental changes. Let us remove our entire political subsidy from the government and end this petroleum products subsidy debate once and for all. It is time to bring the Arab Spring south.

Izielen Agbon Izielen Agbon writes from Dallas, Texas. izielenagbon@yahoo.com

He is former HOD , Petroleum Engineering Dept, former ASUU chairman, University of Ibadan, trained many operators in nation’s energy industry with pratical experience on our practices and policy focus in the last 20yrs